{ "description": "Central colonoscopy-based model, not a validated longitudinal simulation or clinical forecast.", "unit": "per 1,000 people per year; false positives are tests/interventions", "assumptions": { "detectable_years": 1.0, "mammography_interval": 2.0, "cervical_interval": 5.0, "fit_interval": 1.0, "lung_interval": 1.0, "galleri_interval": 1.0, "mammography_sensitivity": 0.869, "mammography_fpr": 0.111, "fit_sensitivity": 0.74, "fit_fpr": 0.06, "cervical_sensitivity": 0.941, "cervical_non_cancer_positive_rate": 0.07, "cervix_present_fraction": 0.75, "lung_sensitivity": 0.786, "lung_fpr": 0.053, "lung_cancer_eligible_fraction": 0.6, "lung_population_eligibility_multiplier": 1.0, "galleri_scale": 0.7631067961165049, "galleri_fpr": 0.004, "residual_ccga_sensitivity": 0.508, "galleri_flat_sensitivity": null, "galleri_sensitivity_by_site": null, "galleri_fpr_by_age": null, "colorectal_strategy": "Colonoscopy replaces FIT", "colonoscopy_interval": 10, "colonoscopy_cancer_sensitivity": 0.95, "colonoscopy_specificity": 0.86, "additional_crc_prevention_fraction": 0.2 }, "limitations": "Hypothetical 20% further CRC incidence reduction relative to observed SEER, not total efficacy versus no screening. Applied immediately in a mature program; no lag, aging, mortality, adenoma progression, repeat-round changes, surveillance or adherence dynamics. Annual exam frequency is 1/10. GIQuIC observed adenomas proxy age-specific precancer prevalence; serrated-only prevalence and missed adenomas are unresolved. Galleri alone retains baseline incidence and receives no modeled prevention. No mortality benefit is inferred.", "sources": [ "https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1311194", "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK570821/table/ch2.tab7/", "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9398947/" ], "rows": [ { "sex": "Female", "age": "50-54", "age_code": 211, "cancers_per_1000_year": 6.035422868, "lung_population_eligible_fraction": 0.09893716279239001, "cervical_age_eligible_fraction": 1.0, "residual_cancers_per_1000_year": 0.3260276600000003, "policy": "USPSTF A/B", "caught_per_1000_year": 1.265044975296, "missed_per_1000_year": 4.770377892704, "cancers_detected_pct": 20.96033704619618, "false_positive_tests_per_1000_year": 81.29678821285468, "overlap_caught_lower": 1.265044975296, "overlap_caught_upper": 1.265044975296, "overlap_detected_pct_lower": 20.96033704619618, "overlap_detected_pct_upper": 20.96033704619618, "extra_caught_per_1000_year": 0.0, "extra_false_positive_tests_per_1000_year": 0.0, "false_positive_tests_by_modality": { "Lung CT": 5.234418348146671, 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3.9758583085280037, "false_positive_tests_by_modality": { "Lung CT": 5.234418348146671, "Mammography": 55.36479269154, "Cervical cotest": 10.49817084008, "Galleri": 3.975858308528, "Colonoscopy": 10.199406333088001 }, "baseline_cancers_per_1000_year": 6.15316692, "prevented_per_1000_year": 0.117744052, "colorectal_strategy": "Colonoscopy every 10 years" }, { "sex": "Female", "age": "50-54", "age_code": 211, "cancers_per_1000_year": 6.15316692, "lung_population_eligible_fraction": 0.09893716279239001, "cervical_age_eligible_fraction": 1.0, "residual_cancers_per_1000_year": 0.3260276600000003, "policy": "Galleri alone", "caught_per_1000_year": 2.074098737261068, "missed_per_1000_year": 4.079068182738933, "cancers_detected_pct": 33.707824998530484, "false_positive_tests_per_1000_year": 3.97538733232, "overlap_caught_lower": 2.074098737261068, "overlap_caught_upper": 2.074098737261068, "overlap_detected_pct_lower": 33.707824998530484, "overlap_detected_pct_upper": 33.707824998530484, 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